# Bitcoin Bertahan di Atas $80.000, Funding Rendah dan ETF Keluar $138 Juta

*Harian · 25 October 2026 06:31 WIB · rezim netral · keyakinan sedang*

## Ringkasan eksekutif

- Market cap crypto global turun 2,82% ke $2.717,06 miliar; BTC dominance 59,50%, ETH dominance 10,52%.
- BTC $80.187,76 (-1,23% sehari) masih 9,94% di atas MA200 $72.938,85, tetapi 2,01% di bawah MA50 $81.833,10.
- Breadth sempit: 7 dari 37 aset positif 7 hari dan 7 dari 37 di atas MA50, median 7 hari -3,67%.
- Funding BTC 0,00096% per 8 jam (persentil 90 hari 11,85), OI $7,57 miliar turun 1,58% sepekan.
- ETF BTC spot -$137,9 juta sehari dengan streak -2 hari dan -$606,1 juta dalam 15 hari; ETF ETH -$1.083 juta.
- Suplai stablecoin $302,80 miliar (-0,68% 7 hari), TVL $88,93 miliar (-7,02% 30 hari).

## Apa yang terjadi

Akhir pekan berjalan merah. BTC diperdagangkan $80.187,76 atau turun 1,23% sehari dan sempat menyentuh bawah $80.000 di tengah berita evakuasi AS di Timur Tengah [10]. Dalam empat jam, posisi long crypto mengalami likuidasi $404 juta [3]. Market cap global turun 2,82% jadi $2.717,06 miliar. ETH lebih lemah, -3,00% sehari di $2.316,00 dan 9,06% di bawah MA50 $2.546,87.

Penyebabnya campuran makro dan positioning. The Fed diperkirakan memimpin jeda hawkish di antara negara G7 [1], dengan sejumlah ekonom memperkirakan jeda sebelum kenaikan pada Desember [26]. UST10Y berada di 5,00% dan VIX 19,45, naik 30,80% dalam 20 hari. SPX 7.623,68 berada 0,99% di bawah MA50 7.699,64. Korelasi BTC-SPX 20 hari 0,69 memberi konteks bahwa tekanan ekuitas cepat menular ke crypto.

Di dalam crypto, rotasi bersifat defensif. Hanya 7 dari 37 aset di atas MA50 dengan median 7 hari -3,67%. Fear & Greed 51 (netral), turun dari rata-rata 30 hari 64,37. Suplai stablecoin turun 0,68% sepekan ke $302,80 miliar dan TVL turun 7,02% sebulan ke $88,93 miliar, tanda likuiditas on-chain menyusut, bukan menguat. Data on-chain hanya tersedia satu hari sehingga belum bisa dipakai menilai tren.


## Mengapa penting

Pasar diuji di dua sisi sekaligus: tren jangka panjang BTC masih positif karena 9,94% di atas MA200, tetapi partisipasi sangat sempit dengan breadth 7/37. Kombinasi harga di atas MA200 dan breadth tipis adalah kondisi rapuh, di mana BTC bisa bertahan sementara mayoritas altcoin melemah. Pertarungan kunci ada di $81.833 (MA50) sebagai syarat perbaikan dan $72.938 (MA200) sebagai penopang struktural. Selama dua level itu belum diuji, arah belum tuntas.


## Makro dan likuiditas

Likuiditas global masih ketat. UST10Y 5,00% berada di persentil 89,22 selama setahun, UST2Y 4,69%, dan spread 2s10s 0,31% datar dalam 20 hari. Dolar menguat: EURUSD 1,1193 di persentil 1,37 dan USDCNY 7,466 di persentil 0,27. Gold $3.999,77 turun 20,30% setahun dengan persentil 4,38, sinyal permintaan aset lindung nilai melemah, sehingga dana tidak otomatis berpindah ke BTC.

Bagi crypto, skor rezim -1 (netral) berarti tidak ada tailwind likuiditas. Beta BTC terhadap SPX 1,42 dengan korelasi 60 hari 0,39, jadi guncangan ekuitas tetap terasa, sementara korelasi ke VIX -0,30 dan ke UST10Y -0,12 relatif lemah. Ruang naik lebih bergantung pada arus spesifik crypto daripada pelonggaran makro.


## Positioning dan derivatif

Funding BTC 0,00096% per 8 jam (annual 1,05%) di persentil 90 hari 11,85, tergolong rendah. OI BTC $7,57 miliar turun 1,58% sepekan, jadi leverage menyusut bukan menumpuk. ETH funding negatif -0,000339% (annual -0,37%) dengan OI $5,53 miliar naik 1,41%, sedangkan SOL funding -0,002754% dengan OI $873,57 juta turun 9,02%. Rasio long/short 2,12 (BTC), 3,18 (ETH), dan 2,94 (SOL) menunjukkan akun long jauh lebih banyak, meski data taker tidak tersedia untuk memastikan arah agresor.


## Aliran institusi dan likuiditas

ETF BTC spot mencatat keluar $137,9 juta sehari dengan streak -2 hari, meski 5 hari masih bersih +$301,2 juta; 15 hari justru -$606,1 juta. ETF ETH keluar $1.083 juta dalam 15 hari, sejalan laporan bahwa ETF Ethereum kehilangan $1,1 miliar dalam tiga minggu [2]. Digabung kontraksi stablecoin -0,68% sepekan dan TVL -7,02% sebulan, gambaran likuiditas adalah drainase bertahap, bukan panik. Tanpa arus masuk kembali, kenaikan harga lebih bergantung pada penutupan short.


## Skenario

- **Dasar (55%)**: BTC bertahan di rentang $79.000 sampai $82.600 dengan funding rendah; pasar menunggu katalis Fed dan aliran ETF sebelum menentukan arah.
- **Naik (25%)**: Penutupan harian di atas MA50 $81.833 dan kembalinya aliran ETF membuka jalan ke resistance $82.590,65 lalu $86.620.
- **Turun (20%)**: Kehilangan $79.000 beruntun berisiko menyeret BTC ke MA200 $72.938,85, seiring ETF -$606,1 juta dalam 15 hari dan breadth 7/37.

## Risiko utama

- Eskalasi geopolitik Timur Tengah menekan harga; BTC sudah sempat di bawah $80.000 pada 24 Oktober [10].
- Fed hawkish pause dan wacana kenaikan Desember [26] menjaga UST10Y di 5,00% dan VIX 19,45, menekan aset berisiko.
- Outflow ETF BTC spot berlanjut; 15 hari sudah -$606,1 juta dan streak saat ini -2 hari.
- Kontraksi stablecoin -0,68% sepekan dan TVL -7,02% sebulan mengurangi bahan bakar likuiditas.
- Likuidasi long $404 juta dalam empat jam [3] menunjukkan leverage masih mudah terpicu lagi.

## Yang perlu dipantau

- Pertahanan BTC di atas $80.000 dan perebutan MA50 $81.833,10.
- MA200 $72.938,85 sebagai support struktural jika tekanan berlanjut.
- Aliran ETF BTC dan ETH harian, streak BTC saat ini -2 hari.
- VIX 19,45 dengan ambang 20 dan persentil 81,64.
- UST10Y 5,00%, spread 2s10s 0,31%, serta agenda inflasi dan Fed pekan ini [16][26].

## Katalis dekat

- Rapat Fed pekan ini dengan ekspektasi hawkish pause [1][26].
- Rilis data inflasi dan laporan laba pekan ini [16].
- Arus ETF ETH yang sudah -$1.083 juta dalam 15 hari [2].
- Oposisi Wells Fargo dan lima perusahaan lain terhadap rencana tokenized stock OKX-ICE [14][27].

## Fakta

- Market cap crypto $2.717,06 miliar, turun 2,82% dalam 24 jam, dengan BTC dominance 59,50%.
- BTC $80.187,76, -1,23% sehari, +9,94% di atas MA200, drawdown -35,67% dari puncak.
- Breadth: 7 dari 37 aset positif 7 hari, 7 dari 37 di atas MA50, median 7 hari -3,67%.
- Funding BTC 0,00096% per 8 jam, persentil 90 hari 11,85; OI $7,57 miliar, -1,58% sepekan.
- ETF BTC spot: -$137,9 juta (1 hari), +$301,2 juta (5 hari), -$606,1 juta (15 hari).
- Suplai stablecoin $302,80 miliar (-0,68% 7 hari); TVL $88,93 miliar (-7,02% 30 hari).

## Spekulasi

- Funding rendah diduga menandakan short yang ramai, sehingga squeeze naik rentan terjadi bila $82.590 ditembus.
- Rasio long/short 2,12 pada BTC dan 3,18 pada ETH diduga lebih mencerminkan akun ritel daripada posisi institusional.
- Gold -20,30% setahun dengan persentil 4,38 diduga menandakan preferensi likuiditas, bukan pergeseran ke safe haven.

## Sumber

1. [Makro & The Fed] Fed Set to Lead G7 Trio in Hawkish Rate Pause: Eco Week Ahead - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQbFg3ZkV4QzdBaTNjLTU0N3lHTUpMWEFETVhtYU9NS2l5QlhfMU0zeV9SLTd4ZTFwbnBGUGFOa29IQ25VMmQ3aXotU1hPRkZHR0szdFQ2RzRCemE4SzNVYS1GRG5oZjh0RHVIU2FiUzJLemdEdlk3TGF3SWdKQi1ZZGk5SFNwS2ZKTU1HNzJZSk85T0tiTlU4VXVVVlVsVkE2R2VlSGIxOVd1MUpjY1U2cA?oc=5
2. [ETF & aliran institusi] Ethereum ETFs Have Lost $1.1 Billion in Three Weeks. What Would Bring Buyers Back? - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1AFBVV95cUxQLURJU3RSU0JvQkNWT3dEM2dDckx3MGZtQTNWaC11V1pGTHVwZzFVRHQ1ZHpXMnR1bjJESUlkeWhMdWRyejg2d3d5SEtEVTVhR1FyaGJRVWg3OEN0cTBWa3lBV3RJUzZOZUlBaXRyUlVFWWtaLWR4b0JyN2Q4bE9FTGRWbjRObXhPbkN1bXNCZm4tV19oOVZpeXFVUHFfMWFGRE00dDUycVlRMGV5d0lxTzVwcVZaYlBTeGcxTHdoUUhleVpCWmRkZ29YNnpseGM5UVo5Wg?oc=5
3. [The Block] Crypto longs lose $404 million in four hours as bitcoin briefly slips below $80,000 - https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-24-crypto-longs-lose-404-million-in-four-hours-as-bitcoin-briefly-slips-below-80000-431608
4. [Decrypt] Google Quietly Updates Privacy Policy to Let Gmail and Photos Data Feed Ads - https://decrypt.co/381775/google-quietly-updates-privacy-policy-gmail-photos-ads
5. [ETF & aliran institusi] Ethereum Price Prediction: Where Could ETH Be by the End of October? - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxOdlFqb0ZVLUJjU1BxUm8xMDRIcW02akN5ODJhYzVabXlFUTF0Tk9LeUdLNTZrekQ2WU1vZ1JCOXBzc2dkRWlDeGZnY3JXd1VRdlltQm0wUkdjMXJyUWlBbWdKeXFpaUo1Qm5fY0FpNXlpR3RnRWxmOXlMRTRWX2Fna3cwTmR2TVgxN1NqUmhzTWFHX1FyRWNvX3FaOE9QU1ZITGdiZmdiT0FUVmhFWEpnd1hXXzJkSUU4ak93UlJyOHJxODQ?oc=5
6. [The Block] Argentine judge clears Milei and 10 others in LIBRA case, finding no ‘criminally relevant deception’ - https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-10-24-argentine-judge-clears-milei-and-10-others-in-libra-case-finding-no-criminally-relevant-deception-431606
7. [Decrypt] Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft Copilot - https://decrypt.co/381763/sweden-government-offices-block-chatgpt-claude
8. [CoinDesk] Strategy, Strive face balancing act between bitcoin buying and preferred stock dividends - https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/24/strategy-strive-face-balancing-act-between-bitcoin-buying-and-preferred-stock-dividends
9. [CoinDesk] Block's new voice AI sounds eerily human, sparking awe and scam fears - https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/24/block-s-new-voice-ai-sounds-eerily-human-sparking-awe-and-scam-fears
10. [CoinDesk] Crypto under weekend pressure, bitcoin slides below $80,000 on U.S. Middle East evacuations - https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/24/crypto-under-weekend-pressure-bitcoin-slides-below-usd80-000-on-u-s-middle-east-evacuations
11. [Decrypt] Game Publishers Have Pushed to Cut Discs Since 2007, Infinity Ward Veteran Says - https://decrypt.co/381674/game-publishers-have-pushed-to-cut-discs-since-2007-infinity-ward-veteran-says
12. [CoinDesk] Why McDonalds, Microsoft and Google saying no to tokenized stocks isn't a dealbreaker - https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/23/why-mcdonalds-microsoft-and-google-saying-no-to-tokenized-stocks-isn-t-a-dealbreaker
13. [CoinDesk] Argentina drops criminal probe into President Milei over crashed memecoin LIBRA - https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/24/argentina-drops-criminal-probe-into-president-milei-over-crashed-memecoin-libra
14. [CoinDesk] Wells Fargo, Cisco, Marvell among latest firms objecting to OKXICE's tokenized stock plan - https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/24/wells-fargo-cisco-marvell-among-latest-firms-objecting-to-okxice-s-tokenized-stock-plan
15. [CoinDesk] Bitcoin’s wealthy holders turning to loans and yield as investment habits mature: Xapo CEO - https://www.coindesk.com/
16. [Makro & The Fed] Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy week - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxNTjZBZGI5ajZXbGtSSWlXM2dYX3gyalBrYkxkM3A3ZG5VV0FLTFRNMU0zVU1ZWFREU0R5N29aSU1BNEMwQ3hDeW5yMThnZHlkRVlxN0R3cnRDNUo1YnBPS0RWV2NzRVgzVjM4bzRLSlItQU5ic2VOX215a2x3ck5VaEJxYmdDcXg1ZUNMOHlBTXlzakZMM09TNkE1VlZqLVFoVm9pbEJkMVpOdHhQbHFvWExHYUJsWU1id1ZGc0hqejBrUTJUWGVneWp5Rkg?oc=5
17. [Decrypt] Hong Kong’s Biggest Bank Puts a Stablecoin in 3 Million Wallets - https://decrypt.co/381760/hong-kong-bank-hsbc-stablecoin-3-million-wallets
18. [CoinDesk] U.S. Clarity Act failure gives Asia and Middle East a competitive edge, says Apex Group CEO - https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/24/u-s-clarity-act-failure-gives-asia-and-middle-east-a-competitive-edge-says-apex-group-ceo
19. [Makro & The Fed] Higher interest rates add costs, but also can make you money - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxOLW9lTFdoODdYamtuZ2c0N2cxc3Y1YTV0Ti1jdWt3Qjc1M1l2ZGhkakZMZGxNXy0xaVdoQzBVTEdkYmI3THlkLUhMLXhMYWJwOGVkZDA4akNmelpWY05wbUtqUGJ6clNISEdjNGJfOVZPTXUyR2lBWHg3TUdwNUI4cEJUWTd2UExrU3VuTWV2X1YxOG1aZG5Xd1pxV3FxeUdTQWsybU5n?oc=5
20. [Makro & The Fed] President Donald Trump Just Threw Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Under the Bus, and Things Could Get Ugly for Wall Street - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPOXh5ajd6Y2hCYnRWYmpLOXBpdlU1Wmt2Q1VuSGpSUmNMQmF5ZU9EQUFBUGVCNGMtOWpwLXl0c212aUw4a2RqV1lZMGtwWlNfU2dLekN1MXNIcUVQWVhGc1BuRS1rWWNsQmZ1QjZEU2lEdGluVDhyWFB6RXJ1UUY1Z1ZueXpoWE9WV2V5eEthN0p5cGFwdm4xNF9UVVI2b0JNbnZhTUJrMUNIZFJBYmtrYUlEZUh1YXVlbEJnTVk3ZXdNMG94MTV1ckh3?oc=5
21. [Makro & The Fed] Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites? - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOUHFtRnkxbUdoQndZTzF1N3IzMUtWMTBQSnpVbzVQcV9xVHpkRkc4bWpnMmlLWE1pUUx4UUlUd1o5eFU5eG1qODdoRUJvYl9Ja1hBOFpQTzRDQ0lsbjh2aUk5N2JnZk1NWkM0X2p2UjJSMWxOR0JQUFBZV0xRRm1tV0FnYmotenNScHlCUW9raFVSVnFhVWhjQ2ZfcGdCTElL?oc=5
22. [Makro & The Fed] Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy week - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizgFBVV95cUxQU2dlWE1LWUxKdmJDa2xQSGcyWUJVaVlFLTlzT09Dcm5sNVNzbGZ3Y09kcDJ4WDkzS2x6ankwQ1VmTkV2Y0JCbjloV2VKVklmVlFITHh5VlVuVVp6UnRYaFpxTFltWlp5MDdCaWR0N0xKQWY3MjZWa2VESk1hRjVuMHVBVmpMU3JaTG5IWmR6cXVRYW9JYnVrRmM1Zjg2dzh0eGE0LTlkREY2emQ5QXZQdnJsTWtiRVJmRFNGYm1Bbml2ckhsQkQ5M1A2T05XUQ?oc=5
23. [ECB] Piero Cipollone: Interview with Milano Finanza - https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/inter/date/2026/html/ecb.in261024~ee2ba73cf3.en.html
24. [CoinDesk] Franklin Templeton adds $150 million in fund shares to XRP Ledger, all in one wallet - https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/24/franklin-templeton-adds-usd150-million-in-fund-shares-to-xrp-ledger-all-in-one-wallet
25. [Makro & The Fed] Will the Fed raise interest rates this year? Divided economists weigh in - ABC News - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNX3NMLXhhYU1lOVVLWU9sY0k0SDUyQnEwMG9SZ1RzNHZobTIyYk9KWGJlOGhic3FKdlQ2NXlIVDF6SW1oRlNWZlY2NHlNLWlnNGoybzAwLWlkV3V1Q1ZtM21KS2FLTy02NEF6VjY4UmFNc2hYa21mRURlSkJYZWxtc1R3VmRYZFlKNUU3NzZiMkZGNGJZcG1xZUNCN0RQNkRndEVPb9IBqgFBVV95cUxOU1FSZ3pWOURaQUxBS296TzBtRFFGclJXTnpLYWwzZXU1Q01kcVZUczBxUDAwR3FaYmFZdzlXUWM2T0Q3TDVldm9nSVY4OERYRUtkdm5sdndPSU1ETU1yc3BuMEpXLTd2VFFZRTVQcWdMZFdEZ0EzYjhTS200RFBkZy1jbE01WVhVbEgyX1Z2dXc4MWxmbXd6cl9pSlp2TDRldkdkS2hwOVE0Zw?oc=5
26. [Makro & The Fed] Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hike - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxOcVJoZ1lwbW55OENBSXEtTVVBNWpaUTJfVWozbW1aVV9oRGdXZXo1MnQ2bEJOVTlfbXY2X0x3WmpBQi00VTIza2hNNy1PZ0FlMjdGMjlHYmRBeG4xN2NCc1NiQlNRbkt6dW5XM2ZjQ1BQUkhtSlNkSEJQaGpGbHBCV1d6TXJ4dV82RWlsdXpmVQ?oc=5
27. [Cointelegraph] Wells Fargo and five others object to OKX-ICE tokenized stock listings: Report - https://cointelegraph.com/news/nasdaq-companies-object-tokenized-stock-listings-okx-ice?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
28. [Decrypt] Netanyahu Considering Crypto Plan to Dodge Banking Sanctions on Israel - https://decrypt.co/381758/netanyahu-crypto-plan-banking-sanctions-israel

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Dibuat 25 Oct 2026 06:31 WIB. Bukan rekomendasi investasi.