# BTC Bertahan di Atas MA200, ETF dan Stablecoin Beri Sinyal Kontraksi

*Mingguan · 25 October 2026 09:01 WIB · rezim netral · keyakinan sedang*

## Ringkasan eksekutif

- BTC 80.862 dolar, turun 1,53% sepekan dan 3,85% sebulan, tetapi masih 10,78% di atas MA200 72.991,32.
- Kapitalisasi pasar global 2,73 triliun dolar, melemah 2,73% dalam 24 jam; dominasi BTC 59,46% dan ETH 10,56%.
- Breadth sempit: 9 dari 37 aset positif sepekan dengan median -2,79%, hanya 7 dari 37 di atas MA50.
- ETF BTC inflow 301,2 juta dolar dalam 5 hari, namun hari terakhir keluar 137,9 juta dan streak negatif dua hari.
- ETF ETH kehilangan 1.083,0 juta dolar dalam 15 hari [2]; suplai stablecoin turun 0,68% ke 302,79 miliar dolar.

## Apa yang terjadi

BTC diperdagangkan 80.862 dolar, turun 1,53% sepekan dan 3,85% sebulan, dengan drawdown 35,13% dari puncak tertinggi yang tersimpan. Harga sempat menyentuh bawah 80.000 dolar dan memicu likuidasi posisi long 404 juta dolar dalam empat jam [3], di tengah berita evakuasi warga AS dari Timur Tengah [10]. Posisi kini 1,23% di bawah MA50 81.867,71 tetapi masih 10,78% di atas MA200 72.991,32, dengan rentang 90 hari 62.823,64 sampai 86.620 dolar.

Kelemahan menyebar ke altcoin. ETH 2.357,99 dolar, turun 2,17% sepekan dan 12,39% sebulan, serta 7,36% di bawah MA50 2.545,28 dengan drawdown 51,20%. AAVE -9,11%, NEAR -9,93%, HBAR -8,75%, dan AVAX -7,75% memimpin pelemahan, sementara PEPE +12,47%, ZEC +6,93%, dan BNB +2,27% menjadi pengecualian. Median return 7 hari -2,79% dengan dispersi 4,42.

Aliran institusi masih dua arah. ETF Bitcoin spot mencatat inflow 301,2 juta dolar dalam lima hari, tetapi hari terakhir keluar 137,9 juta dengan streak negatif dua hari. ETF ETH kehilangan 1.083,0 juta dolar dalam 15 hari, sejalan laporan bahwa ETF Ethereum kehilangan 1,1 miliar dolar dalam tiga minggu [2]. Suplai stablecoin turun 0,68% sepekan ke 302,79 miliar dolar dan TVL DeFi turun 1,52% sepekan, 7,03% sebulan.


## Mengapa penting

Pemisahan sinyal menjadi kunci. Tren BTC tetap bullish karena harga 10,78% di atas MA200, tetapi breadth yang sempit menunjukkan penguatan tidak merata dan bergantung pada sedikit nama besar. Korelasi BTC dengan SPX naik ke 0,69 pada 20 hari dari 0,391 pada 60 hari, dengan beta 1,419, sehingga guncangan ekuitas jangka pendek lebih mudah menular ke crypto. Di sisi lain, kontraksi stablecoin dan TVL menandakan likuiditas baru belum masuk, sehingga kenaikan indeks besar tidak otomatis berarti pasar sehat secara luas.


## Makro dan likuiditas

Latar makro mengetat. The Fed diperkirakan memimpin jeda suku bunga hawkish di antara negara G7 [1], dengan sebagian ekonom melihat jeda sebelum kenaikan pada Desember [26]. UST10Y berada di 5,00% (persentil 89,2), turun 18 bps dalam 20 hari, UST2Y 4,69%, spread 2s10s 0,31 poin. VIX 19,45 setelah naik 30,80% dalam 20 hari, SPX 7.623,68 turun 0,52% sehari, dan emas 3.999,65 dolar melemah 13,92% dalam 60 hari di persentil 4,4. Skor rezim -1 alias netral.


## Positioning dan derivatif

Funding BTC 0,0094% per 8 jam (annual 10,3%, persentil 84,8 dari 90 hari) menempatkan posisi long pada sisi ramai, dengan rata-rata 7 hari 0,00569%. Open interest BTC 7,69 miliar dolar naik 0,199% sepekan dan rasio long/short 2,2082, sehingga risiko squeeze tetap terbuka. ETH lebih seimbang: funding 0,003746% (persentil 44,1), OI 5,36 miliar dolar turun 1,58% sepekan, LSR 3,3879. OI SOL turun 3,80% ke 878,65 juta dolar.


## Aliran institusi dan likuiditas

Aliran pasif belum menjadi pendorong bersih. Dalam 15 hari ETF BTC net -606,1 juta dolar dan ETF ETH net -1.083,0 juta dolar, sementara stablecoin -0,68% sepekan dan TVL -1,52% sepekan. Aktivitas onchain tipis: biaya 3.442 dolar per hari (rata-rata 7 hari 3.612), 716.451 transaksi, mempool 68,70 MB. Artinya likuiditas marginal lebih ditentukan positioning derivatif daripada permintaan spot baru, sehingga reli berkelanjutan butuh inflow ETF yang konsisten.


## Skenario

- **Dasar (55%)**: BTC bertahan di 78.000 sampai 82.380 dolar, breadth tetap sempit, funding turun ke kisaran netral, ETF BTC kembali inflow tipis.
- **Naik (25%)**: BTC menembus 82.380,42 dan menguji 86.620 dolar, didorong inflow ETF baru dan pendinginan UST10Y di bawah 5,00%.
- **Turun (20%)**: BTC kehilangan MA50 dan menuju MA200 72.991,32 setelah likuidasi long lanjutan dan outflow ETF berlanjut.

## Risiko utama

- BTC gagal bertahan di atas MA50 81.867,71; penutupan harian di bawahnya membuka uji MA200 72.991,32.
- Funding BTC bertahan di persentil 85 sehingga satu penurunan tajam memicu likuidasi long berantai seperti 404 juta dolar [3].
- Outflow ETF berlanjut: hari terakhir BTC -137,9 juta dolar dan ETH -1.083,0 juta dolar dalam 15 hari [2].
- Kontraksi stablecoin lebih dalam dari -0,68% sepekan, menekan TVL yang sudah -7,03% sebulan.
- Kejutan hawkish The Fed [1][26] menaikkan UST10Y dari 5,00% dan menekan aset berisiko.

## Yang perlu dipantau

- MA50 BTC 81.867,71 dan resistensi 82.380,42; high 90 hari 86.620 dolar.
- MA200 BTC 72.991,32 sebagai batas tesis bullish.
- Agenda inflasi, earnings, dan komunikasi The Fed sepanjang pekan [16][22].
- Aliran harian ETF BTC dan ETH, termasuk streak negatif dua hari pada BTC.
- Total suplai stablecoin 302,79 miliar dolar dan TVL 88,93 miliar dolar.

## Katalis dekat

- Keputusan dan komunikasi The Fed pekan ini, dengan ekspektasi jeda hawkish [1][26].
- Rilis inflasi, earnings, dan sentimen konsumen [16][22].
- Aliran ETF ETH yang sudah negatif 1,1 miliar dolar dalam tiga minggu [2].
- Peluncuran stablecoin bank besar Hong Kong ke 3 juta dompet [17].

## Fakta

- BTC 80.862 dolar, turun 1,53% 7 hari, naik 26,83% 90 hari, drawdown 35,13% dari puncak.
- BTC 10,78% di atas MA200 72.991,32 tetapi 1,23% di bawah MA50 81.867,71.
- Breadth 7 hari 9 dari 37 aset positif dengan median -2,79%; 7 dari 37 di atas MA50.
- ETF BTC 5 hari +301,2 juta dolar, 15 hari -606,1 juta dolar; ETF ETH 15 hari -1.083,0 juta dolar.
- Stablecoin 302,79 miliar dolar (-0,68% 7 hari), TVL 88,93 miliar dolar (-7,03% 30 hari).
- Funding BTC 0,0094% per 8 jam (persentil 84,8); OI 7,69 miliar dolar naik 0,199% sepekan.

## Spekulasi

- Sempitnya breadth diduga karena rotasi terbatas ke BNB, ZEC, dan PEPE, bukan permintaan pasar yang luas.
- Funding tinggi di BTC dengan kenaikan OI tipis diduga posisi long ritel menumpuk menjelang akhir pekan, bukan permintaan institusi.
- Penurunan emas 13,92% dalam 60 hari diduga sebagian dana berpindah ke imbal hasil obligasi, bukan ke crypto.

## Sumber

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2. [ETF & aliran institusi] Ethereum ETFs Have Lost $1.1 Billion in Three Weeks. What Would Bring Buyers Back? - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi1AFBVV95cUxQLURJU3RSU0JvQkNWT3dEM2dDckx3MGZtQTNWaC11V1pGTHVwZzFVRHQ1ZHpXMnR1bjJESUlkeWhMdWRyejg2d3d5SEtEVTVhR1FyaGJRVWg3OEN0cTBWa3lBV3RJUzZOZUlBaXRyUlVFWWtaLWR4b0JyN2Q4bE9FTGRWbjRObXhPbkN1bXNCZm4tV19oOVZpeXFVUHFfMWFGRE00dDUycVlRMGV5d0lxTzVwcVZaYlBTeGcxTHdoUUhleVpCWmRkZ29YNnpseGM5UVo5Wg?oc=5
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4. [Decrypt] Google Quietly Updates Privacy Policy to Let Gmail and Photos Data Feed Ads - https://decrypt.co/381775/google-quietly-updates-privacy-policy-gmail-photos-ads
5. [ETF & aliran institusi] Ethereum Price Prediction: Where Could ETH Be by the End of October? - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwwFBVV95cUxOdlFqb0ZVLUJjU1BxUm8xMDRIcW02akN5ODJhYzVabXlFUTF0Tk9LeUdLNTZrekQ2WU1vZ1JCOXBzc2dkRWlDeGZnY3JXd1VRdlltQm0wUkdjMXJyUWlBbWdKeXFpaUo1Qm5fY0FpNXlpR3RnRWxmOXlMRTRWX2Fna3cwTmR2TVgxN1NqUmhzTWFHX1FyRWNvX3FaOE9QU1ZITGdiZmdiT0FUVmhFWEpnd1hXXzJkSUU4ak93UlJyOHJxODQ?oc=5
6. [The Block] Argentine judge clears Milei and 10 others in LIBRA case, finding no ‘criminally relevant deception’ - https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-10-24-argentine-judge-clears-milei-and-10-others-in-libra-case-finding-no-criminally-relevant-deception-431606
7. [Decrypt] Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft Copilot - https://decrypt.co/381763/sweden-government-offices-block-chatgpt-claude
8. [CoinDesk] Strategy, Strive face balancing act between bitcoin buying and preferred stock dividends - https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/24/strategy-strive-face-balancing-act-between-bitcoin-buying-and-preferred-stock-dividends
9. [CoinDesk] Block's new voice AI sounds eerily human, sparking awe and scam fears - https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/24/block-s-new-voice-ai-sounds-eerily-human-sparking-awe-and-scam-fears
10. [CoinDesk] Crypto under weekend pressure, bitcoin slides below $80,000 on U.S. Middle East evacuations - https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/24/crypto-under-weekend-pressure-bitcoin-slides-below-usd80-000-on-u-s-middle-east-evacuations
11. [Decrypt] Game Publishers Have Pushed to Cut Discs Since 2007, Infinity Ward Veteran Says - https://decrypt.co/381674/game-publishers-have-pushed-to-cut-discs-since-2007-infinity-ward-veteran-says
12. [CoinDesk] Why McDonalds, Microsoft and Google saying no to tokenized stocks isn't a dealbreaker - https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/23/why-mcdonalds-microsoft-and-google-saying-no-to-tokenized-stocks-isn-t-a-dealbreaker
13. [CoinDesk] Argentina drops criminal probe into President Milei over crashed memecoin LIBRA - https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/24/argentina-drops-criminal-probe-into-president-milei-over-crashed-memecoin-libra
14. [CoinDesk] Wells Fargo, Cisco, Marvell among latest firms objecting to OKXICE's tokenized stock plan - https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/24/wells-fargo-cisco-marvell-among-latest-firms-objecting-to-okxice-s-tokenized-stock-plan
15. [CoinDesk] Bitcoin’s wealthy holders turning to loans and yield as investment habits mature: Xapo CEO - https://www.coindesk.com/
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17. [Decrypt] Hong Kong’s Biggest Bank Puts a Stablecoin in 3 Million Wallets - https://decrypt.co/381760/hong-kong-bank-hsbc-stablecoin-3-million-wallets
18. [CoinDesk] U.S. Clarity Act failure gives Asia and Middle East a competitive edge, says Apex Group CEO - https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/24/u-s-clarity-act-failure-gives-asia-and-middle-east-a-competitive-edge-says-apex-group-ceo
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20. [Makro & The Fed] President Donald Trump Just Threw Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Under the Bus, and Things Could Get Ugly for Wall Street - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPOXh5ajd6Y2hCYnRWYmpLOXBpdlU1Wmt2Q1VuSGpSUmNMQmF5ZU9EQUFBUGVCNGMtOWpwLXl0c212aUw4a2RqV1lZMGtwWlNfU2dLekN1MXNIcUVQWVhGc1BuRS1rWWNsQmZ1QjZEU2lEdGluVDhyWFB6RXJ1UUY1Z1ZueXpoWE9WV2V5eEthN0p5cGFwdm4xNF9UVVI2b0JNbnZhTUJrMUNIZFJBYmtrYUlEZUh1YXVlbEJnTVk3ZXdNMG94MTV1ckh3?oc=5
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24. [CoinDesk] Franklin Templeton adds $150 million in fund shares to XRP Ledger, all in one wallet - https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/24/franklin-templeton-adds-usd150-million-in-fund-shares-to-xrp-ledger-all-in-one-wallet
25. [Makro & The Fed] Will the Fed raise interest rates this year? Divided economists weigh in - ABC News - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxNX3NMLXhhYU1lOVVLWU9sY0k0SDUyQnEwMG9SZ1RzNHZobTIyYk9KWGJlOGhic3FKdlQ2NXlIVDF6SW1oRlNWZlY2NHlNLWlnNGoybzAwLWlkV3V1Q1ZtM21KS2FLTy02NEF6VjY4UmFNc2hYa21mRURlSkJYZWxtc1R3VmRYZFlKNUU3NzZiMkZGNGJZcG1xZUNCN0RQNkRndEVPb9IBqgFBVV95cUxOU1FSZ3pWOURaQUxBS296TzBtRFFGclJXTnpLYWwzZXU1Q01kcVZUczBxUDAwR3FaYmFZdzlXUWM2T0Q3TDVldm9nSVY4OERYRUtkdm5sdndPSU1ETU1yc3BuMEpXLTd2VFFZRTVQcWdMZFdEZ0EzYjhTS200RFBkZy1jbE01WVhVbEgyX1Z2dXc4MWxmbXd6cl9pSlp2TDRldkdkS2hwOVE0Zw?oc=5
26. [Makro & The Fed] Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hike - https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxOcVJoZ1lwbW55OENBSXEtTVVBNWpaUTJfVWozbW1aVV9oRGdXZXo1MnQ2bEJOVTlfbXY2X0x3WmpBQi00VTIza2hNNy1PZ0FlMjdGMjlHYmRBeG4xN2NCc1NiQlNRbkt6dW5XM2ZjQ1BQUkhtSlNkSEJQaGpGbHBCV1d6TXJ4dV82RWlsdXpmVQ?oc=5
27. [Cointelegraph] Wells Fargo and five others object to OKX-ICE tokenized stock listings: Report - https://cointelegraph.com/news/nasdaq-companies-object-tokenized-stock-listings-okx-ice?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
28. [Decrypt] Netanyahu Considering Crypto Plan to Dodge Banking Sanctions on Israel - https://decrypt.co/381758/netanyahu-crypto-plan-banking-sanctions-israel

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Dibuat 25 Oct 2026 09:01 WIB. Bukan rekomendasi investasi.