Hypothesis notes

A 30-day stablecoin supply contraction below -1% precedes a BTC drawdown of more than 5% over the next 30 days.

Criteria: Supported if the average forward return when the condition is met is at least 3 percentage points lower and occurs in at least 20 events.

435 contraction events > 1% over 30 days: the next 30-day BTC return averages +2.9%, versus +4.1% for the full sample (2170 days). Difference +1.2 points.

Extremely negative futures funding (below -10% annualized) marks a local low: BTC return 10 days afterward is positive on average.

Criteria: Supported if the average 10-day return is positive and wins in at least 60% of events, with at least 15 events.

Test method: Collect all days with annualized funding below -10%, calculate the next 10-day BTC return, compare with the sample average.

When BTC is above MA200 but breadth is weak (less than 25% of assets above MA50), the next 20-day return is worse than when breadth is wide.

Criteria: Supported if the difference in 20-day forward return is at least 2 percentage points and consistent across at least 30 observations.

When BTC is above MA200 and breadth is below 25% (274 days), the next 20-day return averages +1.0% (median -0.9%). When breadth is above 60% (509 days), the average is +1.5%. Difference +0.4 points.

A 60-day BTC-SPX correlation above 0.6 makes VIX shocks (a spike of more than 20% in a day) contagious to BTC within 3 days.

Criteria: Supported if BTC's 3-day return when correlation is high is at least 1.5 percentage points lower than when correlation is low, with at least 12 events per group.

9 VIX shocks > 15% when BTC-SPX correlation is above 0.5: the next 3-day BTC return averages +0.4%. When correlation is below 0.5 (19 events): +0.5%. Difference +0.0 points.

Three consecutive days of spot BTC ETF outflows of more than 300 million dollars per day are followed by BTC weakening by at least 2% within 5 days.

Criteria: Supported if at least 70% of episodes are followed by weakening, with at least 8 episodes.

Test method: Accumulate daily ETF flow data (starting October 2026), mark consecutive outflow episodes, measure BTC return 5 days after the episode ends.

BTC dominance rising by more than 2 percentage points in 7 days signals a risk-off phase within crypto, and altcoins only recover after dominance stops rising.

Criteria: Supported if the 10-day altcoin return after a dominance increase is at least 3 percentage points lower than baseline.

Test method: Measure the 7-day change in dominance and the next 10-day altcoin return (ETH, SOL, and a basket of 10 coins).