SGSATGAS
Crypto Research · satgas.ai.id
All reports · Lab · Opportunities · Hypothesis · Methods · 25 Oct 2026 09:01 UTC+7

BTC Holds Above MA200, ETF and Stablecoin Signal Contraction

regime: neutral confidence: medium Weekly · data as of 2026-10-25 09:00 UTC+7
BTC
$80,862
-0.03% 24h · -1.53% 7d
ETH
$2,358
-0.04% 24h · -2.17% 7d
SOL
$102
+0.01% 24h · -1.65% 7d
Total MCap
$2.73T
-2.73%
BTC Dominance
59.5%
ETH 10.6%
Fear & Greed
54
Neutral
BTC Funding
10.3%
per year
UST 10Y
5.00%
20d -18 bps
VIX
19.4
20d +30.8%
S&P 500
7,624
20d -1.5%
Executive summary
  1. BTC 80,862 dollars, down 1.53% weekly and 3.85% monthly, but still 10.78% above MA200 72,991.32.
  2. Global market capitalization 2.73 trillion dollars, weakened 2.73% in 24 hours; BTC dominance 59.46% and ETH 10.56%.
  3. Narrow breadth: 9 of 37 assets positive weekly with a median of -2.79%, only 7 of 37 above MA50.
  4. BTC ETF inflow 301.2 million dollars in 5 days, but the last day saw an outflow of 137.9 million and a two-day negative streak.
  5. ETH ETF lost 1,083.0 million dollars in 15 days [2]; stablecoin supply fell 0.68% to 302.79 billion dollars.

What happened

BTC traded at 80,862 dollars, down 1.53% weekly and 3.85% monthly, with a drawdown of 35.13% from the stored all-time high. The price briefly touched below 80,000 dollars and triggered liquidation of 404 million dollars in long positions within four hours [3] , amid news of the evacuation of US citizens from the Middle East [10]. The position is now 1.23% below MA50 81,867.71 but still 10.78% above MA200 72,991.32, with a 90-day range of 62,823.64 to 86,620 dollars.

Weakness spread to altcoins. ETH 2,357.99 dollars, down 2.17% weekly and 12.39% monthly, and 7.36% below MA50 2,545.28 with a drawdown of 51.20%. AAVE -9.11%, NEAR -9.93%, HBAR -8.75%, and AVAX -7.75% led the decline, while PEPE +12.47%, ZEC +6.93%, and BNB +2.27% were exceptions. Median 7-day return -2.79% with dispersion 4.42.

Institutional flows remain two-way. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of 301.2 million dollars in five days, but the last day saw an outflow of 137.9 million with a two-day negative streak. ETH ETF lost 1,083.0 million dollars in 15 days, in line with reports that Ethereum ETFs lost 1.1 billion dollars in three weeks [2]. Stablecoin supply fell 0.68% weekly to 302.79 billion dollars and DeFi TVL fell 1.52% weekly, 7.03% monthly.

Why this matters

Signal separation is key. The BTC trend remains bullish because the price is 10.78% above MA200, but narrow breadth shows the strengthening is uneven and depends on a few large names. BTC correlation with SPX rose to 0.69 on the 20-day from 0.391 on the 60-day, with beta 1.419, so short-term equity shocks are more easily transmitted to crypto. On the other hand, contraction in stablecoins and TVL signals that new liquidity has not entered, so a rise in large-cap indices does not automatically mean the market is broadly healthy.

Macro and liquidity

The macro backdrop is tightening. The Fed is expected to lead a hawkish interest-rate pause among G7 countries [1] , with some economists seeing a pause before a hike in December [26]. UST10Y is at 5.00% (percentile 89.2), down 18 bps over 20 days, UST2Y 4.69%, 2s10s spread 0.31 points. VIX 19.45 after rising 30.80% over 20 days, SPX 7,623.68 down 0.52% in a day, and gold 3,999.65 dollars weakened 13.92% over 60 days at the 4.4 percentile. Regime score -1 aka neutral.

Macro & bonds

SeriesLevel1 day20 days1y percentile
S&P 5007,624-0.52%-1.5%85
VIX19.4+2.21%+30.8%82
UST 2Y4.69%+1 bps-18 bps88
UST 10Y5.00%+1 bps-18 bps89
UST 30Y5.33%+1 bps-14 bps87
Gold (PAXG)3,999.65-0.01%-3.6%4
EUR/USD1.1193-0.11%-1.8%1
USD/JPY175.51-0.26%-2.3%27
USD/CNY7.47-0.17%-2.5%0
2s10s spread+31 bps—+0 bps—

BTC 12 months, MA50 & MA200

55k73k92k110k128kMA50MA20010-2612-2502-2304-2406-2308-2210-21

90-day performance (normalized)

-7%+7%+20%+34%+47%06-1707-3008-2809-2610-25BTC +26.5%ETH +22.7%S&P 500 +2.7%Gold -1.6%

BTC funding per 8 hours, annualized (90 days)

10-17+4.06%10-17+4.08%10-18+7.02%10-18+6.60%10-18+6.40%10-19+5.43%10-19+10.95%10-19+8.72%10-20+10.08%10-20+7.78%10-20+8.60%10-21+7.16%10-21+9.35%10-21+5.36%10-22+0.56%10-22-1.53%10-22+1.39%10-23+5.88%10-23+7.75%10-23+10.95%10-24+4.31%10-24+3.76%10-24+1.05%10-25+10.30%

Positioning and derivatives

BTC funding 0.0094% per 8 hours (annual 10.3%, percentile 84.8 of 90 days) places long positions on the crowded side, with a 7-day average of 0.00569%. BTC open interest 7.69 billion dollars rose 0.199% weekly and long/short ratio 2.2082, so squeeze risk remains open. ETH is more balanced: funding 0.003746% (percentile 44.1), OI 5.36 billion dollars down 1.58% weekly, LSR 3.3879. SOL OI fell 3.80% to 878.65 million dollars.

Futures positioning (Binance USD-M)

AssetFunding 8hAnnualPctl 90dOIOI 7dLong/Short
BTC+0.0094%+10.3%85$7.7B+0.2%2.21
ETH+0.0037%+4.1%44$5.4B-1.6%3.39
SOL+0.0067%+7.3%67$0.9B-3.8%2.96

Positive funding = longs pay shorts (long positioning is crowded). Percentile above 85 indicates crowded positioning and squeeze risk.

Institutional flows and liquidity

Passive flows have not yet become a net driver. In 15 days BTC ETF net -606.1 million dollars and ETH ETF net -1,083.0 million dollars, while stablecoins -0.68% weekly and TVL -1.52% weekly. Onchain activity is thin: fees 3,442 dollars per day (7-day average 3,612), 716,451 transactions, mempool 68.70 MB. This means marginal liquidity is more determined by derivatives positioning than new spot demand, so a sustainable rally requires consistent ETF inflows.

US spot ETF flows (million dollars)

Bitcoin: 1 day -138 million, 5 days +301 million, 15 days -606 million, streak -2 days (inflow in the last 5 days)

10-05-89.8010-06+118.8010-07-484.9010-08-244.1010-09+21.1010-12-65.4010-13+175.7010-14-261.4010-15+5.1010-16-82.4010-19+526.7010-20+23.2010-21+524.8010-22-635.6010-23-137.90

Ethereum: 1 day +4 million, 5 days -221 million, 15 days -1.083 million, streak +1 day (outflow in the last 5 days)

10-05-50.8010-06-201.9010-07-160.9010-08-72.5010-09-56.1010-12-85.4010-13+24.8010-14-129.5010-15-60.3010-16-69.7010-19-103.3010-20-26.1010-21+14.9010-22-110.6010-23+4.40

Source: Farside Investors, retrieved daily. Figures are net flows for all US spot ETF issuers in million dollars. Data is only available for trading days; weekends are blank.

Bitcoin Network

Metric24 hours7-day average
Transaction fees$3,442$3,612
Transactions716,451699,095
Mempool69 MB—

Source: Blockchair. Transaction fees reflect real block demand, not speculative interest.

Rotation & breadth

PEPE+12.47%ZEC+6.93%ENA+3.56%BNB+2.27%BCH+0.65%NEAR-9.93%AAVE-9.11%HBAR-8.75%RAIN-8.22%AVAX-7.75%

9 of 37 assets positive over 7 days, median -2.8%, dispersion 4.4. 7 of 37 assets above MA50.

60-day daily return correlation

ETH vs BTC+0.92SPX+0.39EURUSD+0.33VIX-0.30UST10Y-0.12GOLD+0.08

Correlation is calculated from daily returns with overlapping dates. A value close to 1 means moving in the same direction, close to -1 means opposite.

Scenarios and impact

Base scenario · 55%
BTC holds between 78,000 and 82,380 dollars, breadth remains narrow, funding falls to the neutral range, BTC ETF returns to thin inflow.
Upside scenario · 25%
BTC breaks 82,380.42 and tests 86,620 dollars, driven by new ETF inflows and cooling of UST10Y below 5.00%.
Downside scenario · 20%
BTC loses MA50 and heads toward MA200 72,991.32 after continued long liquidations and ongoing ETF outflows.

Probabilities are the report author's subjective assessment, not the result of a statistical model. The total is kept close to 100%.

Main risks

Facts vs speculation

Measured facts
  • BTC 80,862 dollars, down 1.53% over 7 days, up 26.83% over 90 days, drawdown 35.13% from the peak.
  • BTC is 10.78% above MA200 72,991.32 but 1.23% below MA50 81,867.71.
  • 7-day breadth: 9 of 37 assets positive with a median of -2.79%; 7 of 37 above MA50.
  • BTC ETF 5 days +301.2 million dollars, 15 days -606.1 million dollars; ETH ETF 15 days -1,083.0 million dollars.
  • Stablecoins 302.79 billion dollars (-0.68% 7 days), TVL 88.93 billion dollars (-7.03% 30 days).
  • BTC funding 0.0094% per 8 hours (percentile 84.8); OI 7.69 billion dollars up 0.199% weekly.
Interpretation / speculation
  • The narrow breadth is presumed to be due to limited rotation into BNB, ZEC, and PEPE, not broad market demand.
  • High BTC funding with a slight OI increase is presumed to reflect retail long positions piling up ahead of the weekend, not institutional demand.
  • The 13.92% decline in gold over 60 days is presumed to mean some funds moved to bond yields, not into crypto.

Key technical levels

AssetPriceSupportResistanceMA50 / MA200
BTC$80,862$62,824, $72,991$82,380, $86,620$81,868 / $72,991
ETH$2,358$1,845, $2,159$2,457, $2,776$2,545 / $2,159

Drawdown is calculated from the highest peak in the entire stored history (up to about six years), not just the last 12 months.

What to watch

Near-term catalysts

Methodology and confidence level

Price, flow, and derivatives data are consistent, but the short-term macro direction depends on The Fed agenda that has not yet been released.

Price and macro figures are calculated directly from sources (CoinGecko, Binance Futures, CBOE, US Treasury, ECB, DefiLlama, Alternative.me). The analytical narrative is compiled with the help of a language model from those figures, then checked for consistency. Technical signals use fixed rules that can be audited in analyze.py. This report is not investment advice.

Source

  1. Macro & The FedFed Set to Lead G7 Trio in Hawkish Rate Pause: Eco Week Ahead source
  2. ETF & institutional flowsEthereum ETFs Have Lost $1.1 Billion in Three Weeks. What Would Bring Buyers Back? source
  3. The BlockCrypto longs lose $404 million in four hours as bitcoin briefly slips below $80.000 source
  4. DecryptGoogle Quietly Updates Privacy Policy to Let Gmail and Photos Data Feed Ads source
  5. ETF & institutional flowsEthereum Price Prediction: Where Could ETH Be by the End of October? source
  6. The BlockArgentine judge clears Milei and 10 others in LIBRA case, finding no ‘criminally relevant deception’ source
  7. DecryptSweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft Copilot source
  8. CoinDeskStrategy, Strive face balancing act between bitcoin buying and preferred stock dividends source
  9. CoinDeskBlock's new voice AI sounds eerily human, sparking awe and scam fears source
  10. CoinDeskCrypto under weekend pressure, bitcoin slides below $80.000 on U.S. Middle East evacuations source
  11. DecryptGame Publishers Have Pushed to Cut Discs Since 2007, Infinity Ward Veteran Says source
  12. CoinDeskWhy McDonalds, Microsoft and Google saying no to tokenized stocks isn't a dealbreaker source
  13. CoinDeskArgentina drops criminal probe into President Milei over crashed memecoin LIBRA source
  14. CoinDeskWells Fargo, Cisco, Marvell among latest firms objecting to OKXICE's tokenized stock plan source
  15. CoinDeskBitcoin’s wealthy holders turning to loans and yield as investment habits mature: Xapo CEO source
  16. Macro & The FedInflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy week source
  17. DecryptHong Kong’s Biggest Bank Puts a Stablecoin in 3 Million Wallets source
  18. CoinDeskU.S. Clarity Act failure gives Asia and Middle East a competitive edge, says Apex Group CEO source
  19. Macro & The FedHigher interest rates add costs, but also can make you money source
  20. Macro & The FedPresident Donald Trump Just Threw Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Under the Bus, and Things Could Get Ugly for Wall Street source
  21. Macro & The FedFed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites? source
  22. Macro & The FedInflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy week source
  23. ECBPiero Cipollone: Interview with Milano Finanza source
  24. CoinDeskFranklin Templeton adds $150 million in fund shares to XRP Ledger, all in one wallet source
  25. Macro & The FedWill the Fed raise interest rates this year? Divided economists weigh in - ABC News source
  26. Macro & The FedFederal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hike source
  27. CointelegraphWells Fargo and five others object to OKX-ICE tokenized stock listings: Report source
  28. DecryptNetanyahu Considering Crypto Plan to Dodge Banking Sanctions on Israel source
Created 25 Oct 2026 09:01 UTC+7 · data 2026-10-25 09:00 UTC+7 markdown version · raw data

Automated research report for learning purposes. Not financial advice. Always verify figures against primary sources before making decisions.